22S.Horacio 快速增強南印今年首C5

king111807 · 2026-2-24 02:10

MFR升格熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 230041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/11/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HORACIO)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 67.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 60 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/23 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/02/24 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/24 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/25 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/25 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2026/02/26 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/27 00 UTC: 31.6 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 360 SW: 280 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 110

120H: 2026/02/28 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 260

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM TEMPORARILY PRESENTED AN EYE
CONFIGURATION BEFORE TAKING ON A CDO CONFIGURATION. THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IN T IS UPGRADED TO 4.0 +, CORRESPONDING TO MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 60 KT. AS THE SYSTEM IS SMALL IN SIZE, ITS INTENSITY HAS BEEN VERY
FLUCTUATING SINCE IT BEGAN TO REINTENSIFY. THUS, THE RCM3 SAR
DIFFUSIMETRIC IMAGE FROM 1400Z ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60 KT, WELL
ABOVE ALL OTHER ESTIMATES AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME. THE RSMC ESTIMATE OF
HORACIO'S INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATE AND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OBJECTIVE ADT AND
AIDT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS. HORACIO IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 65 KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST, HORACIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, CURVING ITS MOVEMENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THEREAFTER. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW MIDDLE AND
LOW TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH COULD TEMPORARILY BLOCK HORACIO'S
EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, BEFORE SLIDING OVER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE, INDUCING A DIRECTING FLOW OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. DISPERSION WITHIN THE GUIDANCES IS
LOW IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CERTAIN MODELS WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK AND INCREASES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN
MOVEMENT RESUMES IN THE LONG TERM. OUR CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGES OF THE IA ENSEMBLES AND THE
IFS ENSEMBLE.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE. A MARKED, EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO BE SMALL IN
SIZE. THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED, AT
THE LATEST DURING THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, HORACIO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE CONTINUOUS AND WILL
LEAVE A FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM, PROBABLY AT THE STAGE OF A REMNANT LOW
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FAIRLY LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A SCENARIO OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

RODRIGUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY :
- GALE FORCE WINDS UNLIKELY
- HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METERS LIKELY MONDAY AT MIDDAY.

king111807 · 2026-2-24 02:16

MFR升格強烈熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 231225
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/11/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HORACIO)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 65.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/24 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/02/24 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/25 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/25 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2026/02/26 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2026/02/26 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/27 12 UTC: 32.5 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130

120H: 2026/02/28 12 UTC: 36.0 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 400 SW: 305 NW: 240

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS REMAINED STEADY AND
EVEN IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS, WITH A MORE
DEFINED EYE AND A COLDER CONVECTIVE RING. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE DVORAK
FINE ANALYSIS GIVES A T OF 6.0, IN LINE WITH THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES. THE LOCATION IS FAIRLY PRECISE THANKS TO THE CLEAR EYE
CONFIGURATION IN THE LOWER LAYERS WITH AN EYE WALL RADIUS OF
APPROXIMATELY 7 MN. HORACIO IS THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 100 KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST, HORACIO CONTINUES TO MOVE
GRADUALLY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, CURVING ITS MOVEMENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER. IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW MIDDLE AND LOW TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH COULD TEMPORARILY BLOCK HORACIO'S EVACUATION
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, BEFORE SLIDING OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THIS RIDGE, INDUCING A DIRECTING FLOW OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST. DISPERSION WITHIN THE GUIDANCES IS LOW IN THE SHORT
TERM BUT INCREASES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN THE MOVEMENT RESUMES IN
THE LONG TERM. OUR CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
MOST SHORT-TERM MODELS AND THEN REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGES OF IA
AND IFS MODELS OVER LONGER TERMS.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. A SIGNIFICANT AND
EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, HORACIO WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THIS
WEAKENING WILL BE CONTINUOUS AND WILL LEAVE A SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A
POST-TROPICAL STAGE AS IT SLOWS DOWN, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FAIRLY
LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS. THEN THE
WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE, PROBABLY BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO THE STAGE OF
A REMNANT LOW AROUND 35S.

IMPACT ON INHABITED LANDS:

RODRIGUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY :
- GALE FORCE WINDS UNLIKELY
- HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METERS LIKELY MONDAY AT MIDDAY.

king111807 · 2026-2-24 02:21

JTWC升格C2

WTXS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 66.5E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 66.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.6S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.5S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.6S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 26.9S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 29.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 31.5S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 34.3S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 66.2E. 23FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 524 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 230600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN

蜜露 · 2026-2-24 11:33

今年西南印度洋最強的一個..目前已經開始減弱了

MFR : 強烈熱帶氣旋 115kts 同樣他也拿到Cat.5 140kts 評價

比前一個Gezani還強

RCM3_SHUB_2026_02_23_14_07_52_0825170872_065.65E_20.83S_VH_C-12_MERGED01_RadialW.png

20260223_144200_SH222026_ssmis_F16_91H_150kts_100p00_res1p0-cr100-arH91-bgInfrar.jpg

下面3張圖是Horacio 霍拉西奧的巔峰

東北風 · 2026-2-28 20:05

Womens In Your Town - No Selfie - Anonymous Adult Dating
https://SecreLocal.com

Girls From Your City - Anonymous Sex Dating - No Verify

New Girls
Sofia
Sonya Vibe
Sam
Bella
Yumi
Suki
Bella

king111807 · 2026-3-20 03:27

JTWC降格C4

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 22.5S 64.3E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 64.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.9S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 27.8S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 30.3S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 31.5S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 32.4S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 35.0S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 64.4E.
24FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
417 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 941 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-3-20 03:29

MFR降格熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 241233
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/11/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HORACIO)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 64.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/25 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/02/25 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/26 00 UTC: 31.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

48H: 2026/02/26 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110

60H: 2026/02/27 00 UTC: 32.3 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110

72H: 2026/02/27 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/28 12 UTC: 36.4 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 215

120H: 2026/03/01 12 UTC: 37.3 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, HORACIO'S EYE PATTERN PERSISTED WITH COLDER
TOPS BUT A WARMER EYE. THE 0932Z GCOMW PASS CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF
A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTH EYE WALL, LINKED TO THE INCREASING DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ARE
CURRENTLY LIMITING THE DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS OF THIS CONSTRAINT. IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES CLOSE TO 5.0,
HORACIO'S INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 85KT.

HORACIO'S TRACK HAS STARTED TO BEND SOUTH-EASTWARD, ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING, THE
TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING OF A LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT SLOW DOWN AND CAUSE A TEMPORARY WESTWARD
TURN. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST, MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, BETWEEN A RIDGE STRENGTHENING
TO THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
SPREAD IS LOW AMONG THE GUIDANCES.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE, WITH AN INCREASING SHEAR PARTIALLY OFFSET BY A
VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTH. THE
INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ON WEDNESDAY, UNDER THE EFFECT OF
A STRONG INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WEST OF THE SYSTEM, HORACIO COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL FEATURES.
OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE, FAVORING A DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE TEMPORARY DECREASE IN SHEAR ON FRIDAY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR RENEWED INTENSIFICATION DUE TO EXCESSIVELY
COLD SURFACE WATERS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEFINITELY WEAKEN OVER THE
WEEKEND, EVOLVING INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.

king111807 · 2026-3-20 03:30

JTWC降格C2

WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 24.9S 64.9E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 27.8S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 30.3S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 31.6S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 32.1S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 33.9S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 25.6S 65.2E.
24FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
510 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241800Z IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z AND 252100Z.
//
NNNN