king111807

MFR升格熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 301354
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 42.9 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/31 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/01/31 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/01 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85

48H: 2026/02/01 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65

60H: 2026/02/02 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/02 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/03 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED AND
ADOPTED AN EYE PATTERN. THE 1120Z GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THIS
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE MADE IT POSSIBLE TO TRACK THE
CENTRE OF THE LOWER LAYERS, WHICH MADE A BRIEF TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
BEFORE RESUMING ITS COURSE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS ESTIMATES, BASED ON THE DT, A T AND CI OF 4.5- AND AN
INTENSITY OF 65KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF SYMMETRY IN THE EYE LEADS US TO MAINTAIN THE
INTENSITY OF 65KT AND CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH-ALTITUDE RIDGE IS
GENERATING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT IS STEERING THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE CENTRED SOUTH OF AFRICA HAS
TEMPORARILY IMPOSED A SOUTHERN FLOW, FORCING THE SYSTEM TO CHANGE ITS
TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING,
ALLOWING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETAKE CONTROL AND GUIDE THE
SYSTEM BACK EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE PROVINCE OF
MAHAJANGA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, MAINTAINING ITS COURSE UNTIL SUNDAY IN THE SOUTH OF THE
PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEASTERN DIRECTION AND PASS CLOSE TO THE MASCARENE
ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK
REMAINS MODERATE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GIVEN THE
DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVOURABLE THROUGHOUT THE TRANSIT OVER THE SEA, WITH WARM
WATERS, MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, DOUBLE EVACUATION
CHANNELS AND LOW SHEAR. THIS LEADS TO AN IMPROVEMENT IN LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY AND ALLOWS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE MADAGASCAR COAST AND
COULD EVEN APPROACH THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES OVERLAND, AND ITS
POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND THE
MASCAREIGNES REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE. ALMOST ALL
AVAILABLE MODELS PREDICT REINTENSIFICATION AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK TO THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IMPACTED BY INCREASED SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.

IMPACT ON INHABITED AREAS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS
MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- LANDING IN MAHAJANGA PROVINCE NEAR SAINT-ANDRE CAPE DURING NEXT
NIGHT.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EVENING AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT THE
TIME OF LANDING.
- THE HEAVY RAIN ALREADY IN PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH
200-300 MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY MORE, ESPECIALLY DURING LANDING
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE TRACK. TOTAL OF 100-200 MM IN
24 HOURS ALONG THE TRACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVERLAND ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH FROM TONIGHT.
- SURGE EXPECTED BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5 METRES IN THE LANDING AREA
TODAY.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTANANARIVO AND TOAMASINA):
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK. TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF
APPROXIMATELY 100MM IN 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERLAND ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

king111807

JTWC升格C1

WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 43.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 43.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 16.1S 44.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 17.2S 46.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 18.6S 48.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 20.0S 49.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 22.0S 52.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 23.4S 54.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 25.0S 56.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 43.4E.
30JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301200Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC升格C3，即將登陸馬達加斯加

WTXS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 44.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 44.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 17.2S 46.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 18.8S 48.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 20.3S 50.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 21.5S 51.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 23.1S 54.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 24.3S 55.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 26.3S 57.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 45.2E.
31JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233
NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310000Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
311500Z AND 010300Z.
//
NNNN

king111807

登陸馬達加斯加

WTIO30 FMEE 310658
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/31 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 45.6 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/31 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 140

24H: 2026/02/01 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75

36H: 2026/02/01 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/02 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/02 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2026/02/03 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/04 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 95

120H: 2026/02/05 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FYTIA'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AFTER 00UTC UNTIL IT MADE LANDFALL
BETWEEN 0130Z AND 0200Z ON THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. DVORAK
ANALYSIS TEMPORARILY INCREASED, YIELDING A DT BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.0.
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT INERTIA AND THE FACT THAT THE EYE WAS NOT ALWAYS
CLEARLY DEFINED, WE CAN ESTIMATE THAT THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM INTENSITY
WAS REACHED AT LANDFALL AND WAS NEAR 85 KT. THIS INTENSITY WAS
ASSIGNED TO THE 00UTC ANALYSIS POINT IN THE BEST-TRACK. FYTIA'S EYE
MADE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE AMPARAFAKA, CLOSE TO SMALL TOWNS SUCH AS
MAROALIKA AND JUST WEST OF SOALALA (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE, BOENY
REGION), THE SAME LANDFALL LOCATION AS CYCLONE BELNA IN DECEMBER
2019. FYTIA IS LIKELY THE MOST POWERFUL CYCLONE TO HIT MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE SINCE ANDRY IN DECEMBER 1983, AND IS SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE
THAN BELNA.

THE SYSTEM'S EYE STRUCTURE REMAINED WELL DEFINED UP TO 06UTC, DESPITE
CLOUD TOPS GRADUALLY WARMING UP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THE
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 65 KT AT 06UTC, WITH
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLY LINGERING LOCALLY IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
A TROUGH LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. IT SHOULD THEREFORE PASS WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND AROUND MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD SPEED : SOME
SCENARIOS SUGGEST A SLOWDOWN LINKED TO A WEAKENING SYSTEM STEERED BY
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOWS, WHILE OTHER SCENARIOS FAVOR A MORE POWERFUL
SYSTEM MOVING FASTER IN THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EDGE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH, THUS EXITING MORE RAPIDLY TOWARDS SUBTROPICAL
LATITUDES. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED BY THE RSMC
FORECAST, WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
(AROME, HAFS-A) AND IA ENSEMBLES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT OVER LAND THIS SATURDAY
AND FOLLOWING NIGHT WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. WHEN IT
EMERGES ON SUNDAY MORNING EAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER SURFACE WATERS OF
MORE THAN 28C, STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME NEAR THE
CENTER AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY, GRADUALLY
RETURNING TO THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER,
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF THE TROUCH
SHOULD MORE OR LESS LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. MODEL
SPREAD BECOMES VERY HIGH FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH SOME SUGGESTING
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FILL IN AS A WEAK REMNANT LOW IN CONNECTION WITH
MASSIVE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN A STRONGER
INTENSITY THANKS TO A FASTER MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE
WIND SHEAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSER TO SCENARIOS THAT MAINTAIN
SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. STARTING ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASING SHEAR, THE
SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE) :
- HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FADE AWAY IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
NEAR THE SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- HEAVY RAIN ONGOING : 200-300 MM IN 24 HOURS NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
FURTHER INLAND, 100-200 MM IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE SYSTEM'S TRACK AND
ON MOUNTAINOUS AREAS ON SATURDAY.
- VERY ROUCH TO HIGH SEAS UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- STORM SURGE MAY STILL REACH 50CM TO 1M FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING.

MADAGASCAR (ANTANANARIVO, TOAMASINA AND FIANARANTSOA PROVINCES) :
- HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE SYSTEM'S TRACK AND ON NEARBY MOUNTAINS.
CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS ON SATURDAY AND THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. BEFORE AND DURING THE SYSTEM'S MOVING BACK TO SEA,
THE RESUMPTION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE
CENTRAL-EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA AND THE FAR NORTH OF THE PROVINCE
OF FIANARANTSOA, WITH RAINFALL UP TO 200-300 MM IN 12 HOURS DURING
THE NIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.
- CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING ON SUNDAY FROM NOON ONWARDS.

king111807

MFR降格中度熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 311238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/9/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/31 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 46.5 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/01 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/01 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85

36H: 2026/02/02 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 130 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2026/02/02 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2026/02/03 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2026/02/03 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/04 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2026/02/05 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, FYTIA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND OVER
NORTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR. THE CENTER IS LOCATED AT 12UTC OVER
BETSIBOKA REGION, IN THE SOUTH OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE. THE EYE PATTERN
HAS GRADUALLY DETERIORATED BUT CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG NEAR THE
VORTEX, AS SHOWN BY CLASSIC SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE 1024Z GCOM-W
MICROWAVE IMAGE. FYTIA THUS STILL KEEPS A FULLY TROPICAL CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE DESPITE INTERACTION WITH MALAGASY LANDS. THIS IS PROBABLY
DUE TO INERTIA OF THE POWERFUL INITIAL VORTEX COMBINED WITH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE). MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 KT WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS NOW ONLY PRESENT
INLAND NEAR THE CENTER, ESPECIALLY IN ITS NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
A TROUGH LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. IT SHOULD THEREFORE PASS WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND AROUND MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD
SPEED : SOME SCENARIOS SUGGEST A SLOWDOWN LINKED TO A WEAKENING
SYSTEM STEERED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOWS, WHILE OTHER SCENARIOS FAVOR A
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER IN THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH, THUS EXITING MORE RAPIDLY
TOWARDS SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED BY THE RSMC FORECAST, WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS (AROME, HAFS-A) AND AI ENSEMBLES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT OVER LAND THIS SATURDAY
AND FOLLOWING NIGHT WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. WHEN IT MOVES
BACK TO SEA ON SUNDAY MORNING EAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER SURFACE WATERS
ABOVE 28C, STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME NEAR THE CENTER
AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY, GRADUALLY RETURNING TO
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF A TROUGH SHOULD MORE OR LESS LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. MODEL SPREAD BECOMES VERY HIGH FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FILL IN AS
A WEAK REMNANT LOW IN CONNECTION WITH DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, WHILE
OTHERS MAINTAIN A STRONGER INTENSITY THANKS TO A FASTER MOVEMENT IN
THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE WIND SHEAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSER TO
SCENARIOS THAT MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. STARTING ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY, AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER THE EFFECT OF
INCREASING SHEAR, THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
FEATURES AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE) :
- GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING NEAR THE
SYSTEM'S CENTER. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- HEAVY RAIN ONGOING UNTIL TONIGHT : 100-200 MM IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK AND ON MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
- VERY ROUCH SEAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING THEN IMPROVING OVERNIGHT.

MADAGASCAR (ANTANANARIVO, TOAMASINA AND FIANARANTSOA PROVINCES) :
- HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE SYSTEM'S TRACK AND OVER NEARBY MOUNTAINS.
CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS UNTIL THE COMING
NIGHT. BEFORE AND DURING THE SYSTEM'S MOVING BACK TO SEA, THE
RESUMPTION OF CONVECTION AND WIND CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL-EAST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTH OF THE
PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA AND MAYBE ALSO THE FAR NORTH OF FIANARANTSOA
PROVINCE WITH RAINFALL UP TO 200-300 MM IN 12 HOURS DURING THE NIGHT
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.
- CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING ON SUNDAY FROM NOON ONWARDS.

king111807

JTWC降格TS

WTXS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 46.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 46.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 18.7S 48.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 20.2S 50.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 21.2S 51.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 22.2S 53.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 23.9S 55.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 25.4S 56.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 27.8S 59.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 47.0E.
31JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z IS 989 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z AND 011500Z.
//
NNNN

king111807

MFR升格強烈熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 011838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/9/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 51.3 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 70 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/02 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2026/02/02 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/03 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/03 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75

60H: 2026/02/04 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 85

72H: 2026/02/04 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/05 18 UTC: 29.9 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 120


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CURVED BAND HAS CONTINUED TO WRAP
FURTHER AROUND. A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE 18UTC, CONVECTION
STRENGTHENED AT THE HEAD OF THE BAND, NEAR THE SYSTEM'S CENTER. THIS
IMPROVEMENT LED TO UPGRADE THE INTENSITY TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
HOWEVER, THE 1803Z ASCAT-B PASS, AVAILABLE AFTER ANALYSIS TIME, SHOWS
WEAKER WINDS. THE BEST TRACK WILL THEREFORE BE CORRECTED AFTERHAND :
FYTIA IS STILL AT MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE AT 18UTC. IN
ADDITION, THIS ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE ESTIMATE: AT 20.4S INSTEAD OF 20.6S.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, INITIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, THEN FROM MONDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, FYTIA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SYSTEM'S MOTION INCREASES. INDEED, THE STEERING FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, WHILE NEAR THE SURFACE, THE SYSTEM
COULD BE GRADUALLY EXPOSED TO CONTRADICTORY FLOWS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRAJECTORY HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
MOST DETERMINISTIC AND AI MODELS NOW SUGGEST A MORE OR LESS SWIFT
SHIFT TOWARDS MID LATITUDES UNDER THE EFFECT OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE
CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND AI MODELS.

REGARDING ITS INTENSITY, FYTIA IS TEMPORARILY BENEFITING FROM RATHER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SURFACE WATERS, VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE,
AND LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR. THIS SHOULD ENABLE INTENSIFICATION UP TO
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY TOMORROW. FROM MONDAY AND EVEN MORE
FROM TUESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY WORSEN WITH
INCREASING DEEP SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. OCEANIC POTENTIAL
SHOULD ALSO DECREASE WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF 25S. IN THIS
CONTEXT, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND BEFORE THE SYSTEM MORE
OR LESS DISSIPATES WITHIN A LOW-PRESSURE CORRIDOR. IT COULD THEN LOSE
ITS TROPICAL FEATURES.


EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR : AS FYTIA MOVES AWAY, CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. THERE ARE
NO LONGER ANY IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

REUNION : HEAVY RAIN REACHING LOCALLY 100MM IN 24H AROUND MONDAY.=

king111807

MFR降格中度熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 030621
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/9/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 54.2 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/03 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2026/02/04 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95

36H: 2026/02/04 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 10 NW: 20

48H: 2026/02/05 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2026/02/05 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SLIGHTLY RESUMED IN AN
EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN. THE CONFIGURATION APPEARS TO BE
TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR MODE. DEEP WESTERN SHEAR IS NOW DISCERNIBLE
GIVEN THE LESSER EXTENT OF CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE WSFM SWATH AT 0222UTC IN 89GHZ NOW SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION IS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, EVEN THOUGH A
LOW-LEVEL RING PERSISTS IN 37GHZ. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS REGARDING THE
PT GIVES US AN FT OF 3.5. THIS ANALYSIS IS SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE
DIAGNOSTICS (ADT/AIDT/DPRINT). WE THEREFORE CHOOSE TO ESTIMATE THE
MAXIMUM SPEEDS WITHIN FYTIA AT 45KT AT 06UTC, CORRESPONDING TO A
TRANSITION TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. THE PARTIAL SWATH OF AN
ASCAT-B AT 0455UTC CONFIRMS THIS CHOICE.

FYTIA'S TRAJECTORY REMAINS SOUTH-EASTWARD, STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, IN THE NEXT 24H, THE MOVEMENT SHOULD
SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF CONTRADICTORY FLOWS IN
THE LOWER LAYERS WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL, BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS IN TERMS OF MOTION SPEEDS. FYTIA COULD BE DRAWN MORE OR
LESS RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE EASTERN RIDGE AND THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN VERY DIVIDED, WITH
DIFFERENCES OF NEARLY 250KM IN 36 HOURS BETWEEN THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND SOME AI MODELS. GIVEN SUCH SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY, THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
MAIN MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE STILL WARM WATERS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
POLAR OUTFLOW, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY WORSEN WITH
INCREASED DEEP SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. MOST MODELS NOW AGREE ON
A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE WEDNESDAY. TOMORROW
MORNING, FYTIA SHOULD THEN EVOLVE A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION WITHOUT
SUSTAINED CONVECTION OR STRONG WINDS, DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT. THE REMAINS OF FYTIA MAY
THEN GRADUALLY FILL IN WITHIN A DEPRESSION CORRIDOR AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.