king111807

  熱帶風暴  
編號：10 L
名稱：Jerry

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 10 月 05 日 18 時
命名日期　　：2025 年 10 月 00 日 00 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 10 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：50 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1003 毫巴

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
95L.INVEST.25kts-1011mb-8.0N-25.9W

NHC : 30%

Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and it could become a tropical depression by the
middle to latter part of this week while moving across the central
tropical Atlantic and approaching portions of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

NHC展望提升至Medium，40%

Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands by the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至50%

Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this week as it moves quickly across the central tropical
Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward Islands by the latter
part of this week. Interests there should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至High，70%

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Visible satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure
located over the tropical central Atlantic is gradually becoming
better organized.  Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.  This system is expected to be near or north of the
northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至80%

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite-derived wind data indicate an area of low pressure located
about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands is becoming better
defined. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing
signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear favorable
for continued development of this system. A tropical depression or
storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves quickly
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system
is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on
Thursday and Friday, and interests there should continue to monitor
its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

FWC-N發布TCFA

WTNT21 KNGU 070300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (95L)//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7N 39.3W TO 12.9N 44.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 39.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. PRESENT SYSTEM IS LOCATED 1500
NM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SST.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 080300Z.//

king111807

NHC展望提升至90%

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located a little more than
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands.  If these trends continue,
advisories will likely be initiated on a tropical depression later
today.  This system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic, and then move near or north of
the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday.  Interests
there should continue to monitor its progress.  For more information
on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC直接升格TS，命名Jerry

WTNT45 KNHC 071437
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

The system we have been monitoring (Invest 95L) over the tropical
central Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized thunderstorm
activity and a low-level center to be considered a tropical cyclone.
This system is far from land, roughly 1000 miles east of the
Windward Islands.  An ASCAT pass from around 12Z showed peak winds
between 35 and 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity
is set at 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Jerry.  Convective
bands are increasing around the center, and the strongest winds are
on the storm's east side.

Jerry is moving quickly westward at about 21 kt on the
south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge.  A turn to the
west-northwest with a gradual reduction in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days as Jerry nears the southwestern edge
of the ridge.  This should bring the core near or to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.  Around that
time, the models show a deep-layer trough amplifying over the
western Atlantic, which should erode the ridge.  In response to the
pattern change, Jerry is forecast to turn northward over the
west-central Atlantic this weekend.  The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the model consensus through 72 hours and in best
agreement with HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean, which
have been performing quite well so far this year. Interests in the
northern Leeward Islands should monitor Jerry as there is
uncertainty on how close the core of the system will get to the
islands later this week.

The environmental conditions appear favorable for the system to
strengthen during the next couple of days with the upper-level winds
appearing light, waters quite warm, and abundant surrounding
moisture.  The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a
hurricane in a day or two before its closest approach to the
northern Leeward Islands.  After the system passes by the islands,
the models diverge significantly with some solutions showing Jerry
moving into stronger shear while others keep it in a favorable
upper-level wind pattern.  For now, the official forecast shows no
change in strength from days 3 to 5, but confidence is low for that
portion of the intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday. Interests there should
monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf,
and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that
area later today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 11.5N  44.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  08/0000Z 12.3N  47.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  08/1200Z 13.5N  51.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  09/0000Z 14.9N  54.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  09/1200Z 16.5N  57.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  10/0000Z 18.1N  60.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  10/1200Z 19.8N  61.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  11/1200Z 24.4N  63.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 29.4N  62.9W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi