AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N
147.9E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 060613Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH AN AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30
C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH
MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0N 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 146.3E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING. A 061108Z ASCAT REVEALS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS OVER 90 NAUTICAL MILES ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL DEVELOP TO
THE NORTH, AND GFS INDICATES THE MOST INTENSE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN 95W MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH BOTH GEFS AND ECENS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 144.6E TO 22.1N 138.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 144.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7N 146.3E IS NOW LOCATED 14.7N 144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 76 NM NORTH OF
GUAM.ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BUILDING DEEP
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH, AND GFS INDICATES THE MOST INTENSE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN 95W MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH BOTH GEFS AND ECENS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080300Z.//
NNNN
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