JMA取消GW

熱帯低気圧 a
2025年08月19日10時10分発表
19日09時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        沖縄の南
中心位置        北緯26度00分 (26.0度)
東経128度00分 (128.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1010 hPa

JTWC升格18W

WTPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181421ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z --- NEAR 27.1N 127.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.1N 127.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 29.0N 127.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 30.7N 127.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 32.0N 127.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 32.9N 128.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 34.0N 129.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 127.5E.
19AUG25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 376 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 1009 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) FINAL
WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 181430).//
NNNN

JMA發布GW

熱帯低気圧 a
2025年08月18日10時25分発表

18日09時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        宮古島の南南東約310km
中心位置        北緯22度10分 (22.2度)
東経126度25分 (126.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1008 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

18日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        那覇市の南約240km
予報円の中心        北緯24度05分 (24.1度)
東経127度10分 (127.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 20 km/h (10 kt)
中心気圧        1006 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        100 km (55 NM)

19日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        那覇市の南西約80km
予報円の中心        北緯25度50分 (25.8度)
東経127度05分 (127.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15 km/h (9 kt)
中心気圧        1006 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        130 km (70 NM)

20日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        奄美市の西約270km
予報円の中心        北緯29度00分 (29.0度)
東経126度50分 (126.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        200 km (110 NM)

21日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        九州の西
予報円の中心        北緯30度55分 (30.9度)
東経127度35分 (127.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        260 km (140 NM)

22日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        九州の西
予報円の中心        北緯31度50分 (31.8度)
東経128度00分 (128.0度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        330 km (180 NM)

23日09時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        九州の西
予報円の中心        北緯32度40分 (32.7度)
東経128度10分 (128.2度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1006 hPa
予報円の半径        440 km (240 NM)

JMA升格TD

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 171430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.5N 127.1E TO 25.3N 127.3E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081712Z INDICATES THAT
A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 21.6N 127.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.2N 127.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON
TROF. FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION
HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO FORMATIVE BANDING. A 171235Z ASCAT-B PASS
SHOWED A FORMATIVE LLCC TO THE WEST OF AN EXTENSIVE REGION OF 20-25 KNOT
WINDS EXTENDING ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH
SOME EMBEDDED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS ISOLATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TUTT-CELL POSITIONED
APPROXIMATELY 200NM NORTH OF 92W, WHICH HAS BEGUN TO ENHANCE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AND AROUND
THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ONLY
OFFSET BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT
CELL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181430Z.
//
NNNN

JTWC評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.3N 126.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AS WELL AS A 170419Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING AND HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC),
EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON TROF. FLARING CONVECTION
IS FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE LLC IN THE CONVERGENT
FLOW SOUTH OF THE TROF AXIS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
TUTT-CELL POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 200NM NORTHEAST OF 92W, WHICH IS
IMPARTING NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER 92W AND DRAWING IN DRY MID-LEVEL
ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR
THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KTS) AND DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTH, OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30
C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL VERY SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE AND ONLY MINIMALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, HINDERED BY PERSISTENT DRY AIR AND MODERATE SHEAR MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.8N
125.1E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF KADENA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. 92W IS STARTING TO
FORM WITHIN THE TROUGHING THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS INTO THE LUZON STRAIT.  
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KTS)
OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE MIXED
REGARDING THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR 92W. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOW A FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL DEVELOP, BUT WITH THE ECENS
MODEL BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GEFS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.