WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 21.2N 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.9N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.8N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 107.2E.
18AUG25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 79 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W HAS MADE
LANDFALL IN THE CENTRAL QUANG NINH PROVINCE OF VIETNAM. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS MADE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY REVEALED
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES
BETWEEN 25-30KTS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AND DRY TERRAIN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 1000 MB. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN
WTPN22 PGTW 180030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171430Z AUG 25//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 171430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.2N 108.1E TO 21.7N 107.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.4N 108.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.9N 111.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.0E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ALSO HAVING CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A CONTRACTING WIND FIELD AND REDUCTION OF THE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS INDICATES THAT A TRANSITION FROM A MONSOON DEPRESSION INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS COMMENCING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOW A FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL DEVELOP, BUT WITH THE ECENS
MODEL BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190030Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 127.1E.//
NNNN
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.3N
111.0E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, CHINA. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM
DIAMETER, WITH HIGHER WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK
CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AS WELL AS A 180212Z METOP-C 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE A VERY
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. A 170216Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
REVEALS 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE CHINESE COAST TO THE EAST OF HAINAN,
WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF AT LEAST 200NM. THE ASCAT AS WELL
AS THE MSI SUGGEST POCKETS OF ENHANCED ROTATION AND VORTICITY ALONG
WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS, IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CIRCULATION, WRAPPING UP THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE WITH MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL VWS (20KTS) AS WELL AS A LACK OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
OFFSET BY WARM SSTS OF (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 91W WILL NOT
CONSOLIDATE AND CONTINUE A SLUGGISH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS
HAINAN ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS,
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS
PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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