THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.1N 138.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND MID-
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-
15 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOW CONFIDENCE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARD LUZON, PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.3N
149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 358 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CUSP OR LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), AT THE NORTHERN END OF AN EASTERLY WAVE FEATURE. A
COMBINATION OF AN 180015Z AND 172351Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES REVEALED
THE FACT THAT 90W REMAINS PRIMARILY A WAVE WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
CUSP AT THE NORTHERN END OF IT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25KTS EXTEND
FROM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK TO THE NORTHWEST OF FANANU, THEN TURN SHARPLY
TO EASTERLIES AT THE LATITUDE OF 90W, WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF 25KT
EASTERLY WINDS EXTENDING TO A POINT ABOUT 290NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED TO BE MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SSTS AND LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BUT DO NOT CURRENTLY DEPICT THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
ELEVATED WINDS OF 25-30KTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM, IN THE GRADIENT FLOW, AS IT PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF
GUAM. ENSEMBLE DEVELOPMENT IS STRONG ON THIS CIRCULATION WITH ECENS
BEING THE MOST FAVORABLE MODEL INTENSITY WISE HOWEVER GEFS IS STILL IN
AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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